(367789) 2011 AG5
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| Discovery[1][2] | |
|---|---|
| Discovered by | Mount Lemmon Srvy. |
| Discovery site | Mount Lemon Obs. |
| Discovery date | 8 January 2011 |
| Designations | |
| Apollo · NEO · PHA[1][3] | |
| Orbital characteristics[1] | |
| Epoch 2023-Feb-25 (JD 2460000.5) | |
| Uncertainty parameter 0 | |
| Observation arc | 14.2 yr (5,201 days) |
| Earliest precovery date | 3 October 2008 |
| Aphelion | 1.978 AU |
| Perihelion | 0.87066 AU |
| 1.424 AU | |
| Eccentricity | 0.3887 |
| 1.7 yr (620.9 days) | |
| 348.2° | |
| Template:Deg2DMS / day | |
| Inclination | 3.6946° |
| 135.6° | |
| 2023-Mar-17 | |
| 54.02° | |
| Earth MOID | Template:Cvt |
| Physical characteristics | |
| Dimensions | 140 m[4] |
| Mass | 4×109 kg (assumed)[4] |
| 21.9[3][1] | |
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Template:Mp is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group.[1] It has a diameter of about 140 meters (460 ft).[4] It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 21 December 2012 and as such it now has a rating of 0 on the Torino Scale.[5] It was recovered in December 2022 extending the observation arc from 4.8 years to 14 years. As of 2023, the distance between the orbits of Earth and Template:Mp is Template:Cvt[1]
| Date | JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
uncertainty region (3-sigma) |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-Feb-03 08:51 ± 00:01 | 0.01215 AU (1.818 million km)[1] | ±112 km[6] |
| 2040-Feb-04 08:29 ± 00:06 | 0.00725 AU (1.085 million km)[1] | ±5800 km[7] |
Description
Template:Mp was discovered on 8 January 2011 by the Mount Lemmon Survey at an apparent magnitude of 19.6 using a 1.52-meter (60 in) reflecting telescope.[3][2] Pan-STARRS precovery images from 8 November 2010 extended the observation arc to 317 days. Observations by the Gemini 8.2-metre (320 in) telescope at Mauna Kea recovered the asteroid on 20, 21 and 27 October 2012,[8] and extended the observation arc to 719 days.[3]
The October 2012 observations reduced the orbit uncertainties by more than a factor of 60, meaning that the Earth's position in February 2040 no longer falls within the range of possible future paths for the asteroid.[8] On 4 February 2040 the asteroid will pass no closer than 0.007 AU (1,000,000 km; 650,000 mi) (~2.8 LD) from Earth.[1] Until 21 December 2012 it was listed on the Sentry Risk Table with a rating on the Torino Scale of Level 1.[5] A Torino rating of 1 is a routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger.[9] It is estimated that an impact would produce the equivalent of 100 megatons of TNT,[4] roughly twice that of the most powerful nuclear weapon ever detonated (Tsar Bomba). This is powerful enough to damage a region at least a hundred miles wide.[citation needed]
Older risks
Virtual clones of the asteroid that fit the mid-2012 uncertainty region in the known trajectory showed four potential impacts between 2040 and 2047.[4] It had a 1 in 500 chance of impacting the Earth on 5 February 2040.[4] In September 2013, there was an opportunity to make additional observations of Template:Mp when it came within 0.98 AU (147,000,000 km; 91,000,000 mi) of Earth.[10] The 2013 observations allowed a further refinement to the known trajectory. The asteroid will also pass 0.0121 AU (1,810,000 km; 1,120,000 mi) from the Earth on 3 February 2023.[1][11] The 2023 gravitational keyhole was 227 miles (365 kilometers) wide.[12] With a Palermo scale rating of -1.00,[4] the odds of impact by Template:Mp were about 10 times less[13] than the background hazard level of Earth impacts which is defined as the average risk posed by objects of the same size or larger over the years until the date of the potential impact.[14]
References
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css has no content."JPL Small-Body Database Browser: 367789 (2011 AG5)". Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 1 January 2023.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link) - ^ a b Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css has no content."MPEC 2011-A31 : 2011 AG5". IAU Minor Planet Center. 9 January 2011. Retrieved 17 October 2011. (K11A05G)
- ^ a b c d Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css has no content."367789 (2011 AG5)". Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 17 January 2018.
- ^ a b c d e f g Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css has no content."Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2011 AG5". Wayback Machine: NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 18 November 2012. Retrieved 12 December 2012.
- ^ a b Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css has no content."Date/Time Removed". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 8 January 2013. Retrieved 21 December 2012.
- ^ Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css has no content."Horizons Batch for 2023-02-03 Close Approach". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 24 October 2022. Retrieved 1 January 2023. RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#63/Soln.date: 2021-Jul-11 generates RNG_3sigma = 1518 km)
- ^ Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css has no content."Horizons Batch for 2040-02-04 Close Approach". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 24 October 2022. Retrieved 1 January 2023. RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#63/Soln.date: 2021-Jul-11 generates RNG_3sigma = 78079 km)
- ^ a b Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css has no content.""All Clear" Given on Potential 2040 Impact of Asteroid 2011 AG5". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. 21 December 2012. Archived from the original on 31 December 2012. Retrieved 21 December 2012.
- ^ Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css has no content."The Torino Impact Hazard Scale". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. 13 April 2005. Archived from the original on 30 December 2004. Retrieved 5 November 2011.
- ^ Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css has no content."Asteroid 2011 AG5 - A Reality Check". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. 28 February 2012. Archived from the original on 16 April 2021. Retrieved 29 February 2012.
- ^ Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css has no content."NEODyS-2 Close Approaches for 2011AG5". Near Earth Objects - Dynamic Site. Retrieved 21 September 2013.
- ^ Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css has no content."NASA Releases Workshop Data and Findings on Asteroid 2011 AG5". NASA/JPL. 15 June 2012. Retrieved 16 June 2012. (2012-178)
- ^ Math: 101.00 = 10
- ^ Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css has no content."The Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. 31 August 2005. Archived from the original on 21 March 2002. Retrieved 14 October 2011.
External links
- UH Observations Result in "All Clear" for Potential Asteroid Impact (Institute for Astronomy at the University of Hawaii 21 December 2012)
- Phew! One Less Asteroid Impact to Worry About (Phil Plait 22 Dec. 2012)
- Table of next close approaches (Sormano Astronomical Observatory)
- MBPL - Minor Body Priority List (Sormano Astronomical Observatory)
- Template:NeoDys
- Template:ESA-SSA
- (367789) 2011 AG5 at the JPL Small-Body DatabaseTemplate:Edit at Wikidata
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